Expert outlines steps to achieve Nigeria's $1trn economic target

 

Expert outlines steps to achieve Nigeria's $1trn economic target 

An airline economist and strategist, Captain Samuel Caulcrick has outlined steps to be taken by the Federal Government to achieve the $1 trillion contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), in order to bolster  the country's  economy.

Caulcrick, who is a former Rector, Nigerian College of Aviation Technology (NCAT), Zaria , in Kaduna State said the ambition by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's administration to attain the economic  target is not only ambitious, but achievable, based on sound calculations and  acceleration of three levers  that the Federal Government has direct control over.

The airline pilot said the $1trillion GDP target is not a mere fantasy, but mathematical,  because Nigeria  has already  hit a $2.4 trillion economy on paper.

He said Nigeria’s purchasing power parity (PPP) in dollars  measures what the citizens  actually produce and consume inside the country.

Caulcrick said :"  Nigeria is a $285 billion economy in dollars. 

That is Nigeria’s nominal GDP. It measures what Nigeria is worth to the world at today’s exchange rate. What appears as a gap  

 is not missing factories. It is a missing price. The Naira is undervalued because the fundamentals that support a currency are weak.

"Nigeria has to close the fundamentals gap, and the nominal GDP will begin to rise to meet the real economy. That is the $1trillion GDP path."

The aviation industry strategist said the Tinubu administration has already completed the framework required to attain the ambitious economic target.

He said : " President Tinubu has finished the "hard reset" part, which is the painful reforms. The administration has implemented the 

forex unification.  It has managed  floating  the dollar to  one  exchange rate. No more round-tripping. Dollars now come into the official window because investors trust the price. The administration has achieved fuel subsidy removal. It has stopped the bleeding of $10 billion  per year. Money now goes to capital projects.

" The Tinubu administration has achieved the enforcement of the new tax laws.The tax-to-GDP begins to rise towards 18 percent  and above; government borrowing reduces; inflation and interest rates reduce; and private businesses expand.

" The Tinubu administration has embarked on milestone-based spending. Capital project funds moved to World Bank/DFIs. No payment without delivery. This ends abandonment.

The framework to attract capital and stop leakages  has been done." 

To consolidate the government's achievements , Caulcrick said what is left to attain expected outcomes is within the administration's control.

He said :" Now the country  must moves to the second phase, by pursuing growth through fiscal strength.  And this is 100 percent  in the government’s hands. To drive fiscal discipline, 

government should stop borrowing to consume.  It has to borrow only to produce.

 The government must release funds only on milestone certificates. This reduces waste and builds trust with DFIs and investors.

 " The government must Increase tax-to-GDP from 10 percent  to 18 percent and more. This is the engine. When more businesses and citizens pay their fair share, three  things happen at once. Less public borrowing. Government should  stop crowding out the private sector. Banks can now lend to businesses at cheaper rates instead of lending to the Federal Government.

"There will be more capital for expansion. Cheaper capital means factories will  expand, airlines buy planes, tech companies will  hire more people. That is production.

" More money in people’s pockets.  With targeted social investment and lower inflation, disposable income rises. More consumption ,  more demand  and  more production."

Caulcrick said  tax should not be seen as a burden, but a mechanism on how countries buy back their economies from debt.

"This can happen in two ways,  simultaneously,.

The Naira  can get  stronger.  As fiscal discipline reduces borrowing, and as tax revenue rises, confidence rises. More exports, more remittances, more FDI. A stronger Naira means our $2.4; trillion PPP economy is valued higher in dollars. Example,  If Naira moves from 1500/$ to 800/$ with same output, Nominal GDP doubles. The real economy expands. Cheaper capital  plus  higher disposable income ,  more businesses, more jobs, more goods made in Nigeria. That grows the base itself. Nigeria doesn't need to "grow 4x". The people need to "price correctly and produce more". The $1 trillion GDP will meet us halfway. This is not President Tinubu’s $1 triillion economy. Nigerians should realise it is  our $1 trillion GDP economy..The administration should stay  disciplined. Collect taxes fairly. Spend only on what is delivered. It has to push for more jobs for  the citizens, who should pay  fair taxes. There is need to export more. Produce more. Demand accountability value for every Naira paid .A $1 trillion GDP economy means, more jobs, stronger naira, cheaper loans for businesses. And most importantly, a Nigeria that the world prices correctly. The framework is set. The target is clear. The work is now .Let Nigerians build it."